India will remain ineligible for the United States Diversity Visa (DV) lottery, popularly known as the Green Card Lottery, at least until 2029. Every year, over 50,000 immigrant visas are made available through this popular visa program. For this, lottery is drawn from random selection among all entries to individuals who are from countries with low rates of immigration to the US during the last five years.
However, India’s high immigration volume to the US continues to exceed the eligibility threshold, even when backlogs in H-1B and employment-based (EB) visas have made permanent residency more difficult for the Indian applicants.
Why the Disqualification?
The Diversity Visa lottery programme encourages immigration from countries that have sent fewer than 50,000 immigrants to the US over the past five years. India has consistently exceeded the limit, with more than 60,000 immigrants annually, automatically disqualifying it from the lottery.
In 2022 alone, India sent 1,27,010 immigrants to the US, more than the total number from South America (99,030), Africa (89,570), or Europe (75,610). Based on cumulative data from the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS), in 2023, over 78,070 Indians shifted to the US, confirming the country’s ineligibility for the DV Lottery till 2028. India will remain ineligible for DV lotteries through 2027, 2028, and 2029.
Now, with the lottery route closed, Indian immigrants are left with limited paths to a green card, chiefly converting an H-1B work visa to permanent residency, applying through family sponsorship, investment-based immigration, or asylum. However, each of these avenues is narrowing.
US President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown has created widespread uncertainty among both applicants and employers. As part of the crackdown, student visa policies had been tightened and social media vetting had been expanded. The EB visa route remains the most common but is now troubled with years of backlog.
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